What must be going through Gordon Brown's mind now? Within the space of ten days an eleven point poll lead has shrunk to either parity or a marginal lead, depending on which poll you read. This has led Uncle Arthur to reflect on just how unreliable and limited opinion polls are. Certainly they reflect the increasing volatility and fluctuations of public opinion and as we all know in the past they have been wrong.
On balance, I think there will be an election some time in November. In many ways, looking ahead, it can't get much better for the Prime Minister and perhaps things will improve for Cameron, even without a 'snap election' he will be able to put his difficult summer behind him.
Uncle Arthur fears that at the margins the election could be negative, with the Tories subliminally attacking Brown for being a Scot and Labour attacking Cameron for being a toff. Neither of these points come anywhere near serious politics but I fear they may surface at some point.
I will be interested to see how much of the christian vote is attracted by the proposals on supporting married couples. If it really is effective it should be a wake-up call to Labour to adopt a more coherent view on this and other aspects of social policy.
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